According to forecasts from multiple international research institutions, global and major economies are expected to maintain steady growth in 2026. Signs of easing tensions emerged from the fifth round of trade negotiations between the United States and China in Malaysia, while supply chain relocation continues to drive economic expansion in ASEAN countries. These factors are likely to boost global manufacturing investment confidence and, consequently, increase demand for machine tools. However, uncertainties such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East conflicts, geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, Thailand and Cambodia, deteriorating China-Japan relations, and potential renewed trade sanctions between China and the United States may still affect global economic performance in 2026. The following sections analyze major economic and trade policies in key countries closely linked to Taiwan’s machine tool industry, either as important markets or major competitors.
In 2024, the global economy continued to face challenges from geopolitics, regional wars, and financial turmoil, leaving the machine tool industry in an uneasy environment. Furthermore, factors such as government controls on exports to Russia and Turkey, the yen's depreciation exceeding that of the New Taiwan Dollar, and the gradual unfolding of the effects of China's Ministry of Commerce suspending the ECFA early harvest list contributed to a third consecutive year of decline in both export and production value, further complicating the industry's future development.
Trump’s return to the White House will heighten global political and economic uncertainty. He is expected to adopt a tougher stance on China, reduce Indo-Pacific military engagement, and favor bilateral deals. Trade wars may escalate, with sweeping tariff hikes impacting China, the EU, and Southeast Asian supply chains. Vietnam benefits from manufacturing shifts but faces risks from its trade surplus. Businesses must enhance geopolitical agility, develop early-warning indicators, and implement contingency plans to maintain operational resilience.
The EU Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) mandates large companies to conduct human rights and environmental due diligence across global supply chains and develop climate transition plans. Effective in 2024, it must be transposed into national law by 2026, with phased implementation from 2027 to 2029. Non-compliance may incur fines up to 5% of global turnover. Companies must integrate risk management, establish grievance mechanisms, and publish annual reports. Although SMEs are not directly regulated, they will face indirect pressure and should prepare early.
Global manufacturing value chains are being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, climate change, technological advances, and conflicts. Nations are prioritizing resilient supply chains, reducing reliance on single sources, and promoting domestic semiconductor and EV industries through policies and subsidies. The U.S. and Europe are investing heavily in chip production, while China strengthens R&D and dominates the EV value chain. Going forward, supply chain diversification and strategic industry competition will continue to redefine the global economic landscape.
